北京地区玉米风灾损失定量评估模型研究     

吴春艳  李慧君  叶彩华 《气象与环境科学》2015,38(1):114-118

风灾是北京地区玉米减产的一个重要因素,是影响玉米产量最常见的一种气象灾害,严重的风灾可造成玉米绝收。为实现对玉米风灾造成损失的定量评估,利用收集到的历史上出现的玉米风灾及产量损失数据,结合自动气象站观测资料,分析了风灾发生过程中对玉米产量损失影响显著的气象因子,最终确定选取玉米受灾过程中的最大风速的最大值、持续时间内的最大风速的平均值、最大风速持续时间和过程降水量4个气象因子,并考虑到玉米不同生育期抗风能力的不同,增加了玉米生育期影响因子,利用这5个要素,运用统计学方法建立了北京地区玉米风灾损失定量评估统计模型。通过对样本数据的拟合及剩余样本的检验,建立的定量损失评估模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可为政策性农业保险的定损,以及生产部门确定风灾损失及保险公司理赔提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by floods. However, few empirical studies have estimated the damage that can be avoided by implementing such flood damage mitigation measures. This study estimates potential damage savings and the cost-effectiveness of specific flood damage mitigation measures that were implemented by households during major flood events in France. For this purpose, data about flood damage experienced and household flood preparedness were collected using a survey of 885 French households in three flood-prone regions that face different flood hazards. Four main conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, using regression analysis results in improved estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation measures than methods used by earlier studies that compare mean damage suffered between households who have, and who have not, taken these measures. Second, this study has provided empirical insights showing that some mitigation measures can substantially reduce damage during floods. Third, the effectiveness of the mitigation measures is very regional dependent, which can be explained by the different characteristics of the flood hazard in our sample areas that experience either slow onset river flooding or more rapid flash and coastal flooding. Fourth, the cost-efficiency of the flood damage mitigation measures depends strongly on the flood probability faced by households.  相似文献   

Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Hans de Moel  Jeroen C.J.H. AertsEric Koomen 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):620-627

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.  相似文献   

某局业务楼机房综合防雷整改案例剖析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张鹃  林卓宏  严金芳  许光明 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(2):83-85

利用天气气候资料和广东省雷电定位数据库系统的相关雷击数据资料对2009年8月10日某局位于山顶的业务楼综合机房的设备遭到雷击事件进行分析,找出了雷击事故的发生原因,提出了一套较全面的防雷整改方案,包括防直击雷措施、设备防雷电感应措施及防雷电波入侵措施。整改后,经过一年多的检验,该机房各项设备运行正常,再也没有因为雷击而...  相似文献   

Path-finding through flexible hierarchical road networks: An experiential approach using taxi trajectory data     

Qingquan Li  Zhe Zeng  Tong Zhang  Jonathan Li  Zhongheng Wu 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011

Optimal paths computed by conventional path-planning algorithms are usually not “optimal” since realistic traffic information and local road network characteristics are not considered. We present a new experiential approach that computes optimal paths based on the experience of taxi drivers by mining a huge number of floating car trajectories. The approach consists of three steps. First, routes are recovered from original taxi trajectories. Second, an experiential road hierarchy is constructed using travel frequency and speed information for road segments. Third, experiential optimal paths are planned based on the experiential road hierarchy. Compared with conventional path-planning methods, the proposed method provides better experiential optimal path identification. Experiments demonstrate that the travel time is less for these experiential paths than for paths planned by conventional methods. Results obtained for a case study in the city of Wuhan, China, demonstrate that experiential optimal paths can be flexibly obtained in different time intervals, particularly during peak hours.  相似文献   

基于MO的道路浏览与查询系统的设计与实现     

张玉姗  王红林  何秉宇 《测绘与空间地理信息》2011,34(2):118-121

道路浏览与查询系统的建立已成为数字化城市的重要组成部分,该研究以新疆主要道路为例,以GIS技术的发展和应用为背景,以方便自驾游者及司机使用和数字化城市为目标,根据新疆主要道路的分布,设计和建立了新疆主要道路浏览与查询系统。系统结合GIS组件Map Objects技术、ACCESS数据库技术和面向对象的VB编程语言,构建了道路浏览与查询系统平台。系统具有道路浏览、道路查询检索、图层控制、打印输出、道路基本信息浏览、漫游等功能。其主要面对自驾游者、司机以及外地游客,为用户提供交通方便,从而达到道路交通的数字化、可视化及社会化应用。  相似文献   

路基工程中的砂土液化判别与治理     

谢晓东  何必 《地质灾害与环境保护》2011,22(2):75-78

通过现场标准贯入试验,对国道317线K205+700～K207+100段路基填方段中的淤泥质粉细砂层进行了液化判别.<公路工程抗震设计规范>(JTJ004-89)和<建筑抗震设计规范>(GB5001-2001)的计算结果均表明该砂层会产生液化.但前一规范的计算值偏大,在工程中建议使用后一规范,并以振冲密实法进行预防.  相似文献   

海南冬种瓜菜气象灾害风险评估与区划     

张蕾  霍治国  黄大鹏  姜燕  肖晶晶 《地理研究》2015,34(2):293-305

基于自然灾害风险理论,利用海南省18个站点气象资料、瓜菜生产和社会经济要素资料,通过灾情反演,构建苗期湿涝、冬季寒害和春季干旱致灾等级指标。综合致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力,进行瓜菜气象灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:苗期湿涝危险性从西南至东北增加,春季干旱危险性东西高、中间低;西瓜寒害危险性从中部向两边减小,豇豆和丝瓜寒害危险性从南往北加重,辣椒寒害危险性从东南到西北增加;苗期湿涝孕灾环境敏感性从中部山区向沿海和平原地区增加,春季干旱和冬季寒害趋势相反;瓜菜灾损风险和防灾能力在区域上存在明显差异;西瓜、豇豆和辣椒气象灾害综合风险总体趋势一致,高风险区集中在海南东部地区;丝瓜气象灾害综合风险高值区在北部地区。  相似文献   

“一带一路”战略对中国国土开发空间格局的影响   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

刘慧  叶尔肯.吾扎提  王成龙 《地理科学进展》2015,34(5)

"一带一路"是今后相当长一段时间中国全面对外开放的总体方略。建设"一带一路"已成为中国长期的国家战略,必将对中国国土开发空间格局产生重要影响。在分析中国国土开发空间格局现状特点的基础上,从全方位对外开放、互联互通基础设施条件改善、能源供应系统的变化、贸易畅通和人文交流与合作等几个方面探讨了"一带一路"战略对国土开发空间格局的影响途径和方式。重点论述了陆上国际经济合作走廊建设、海上国际大通道建设等"一带一路"具体行动对区域国土开发的影响。研究结果表明:1"一带一路"战略对国土空间格局将产生重要影响,不同国际经济走廊影响的重点区域不同,有助于促进均衡国土空间的形成;2"一带一路"战略将促进内陆地区形成若干个大都市经济区和内陆开放型经济高地,同时,强化与"一带一路"国际大通道相对接的国内开发轴线的地位和作用,形成全方位对外开放的国土空间格局;3"一带一路"战略将进一步增强沿海地区的国际竞争力,形成"高效"的国土空间;4"一带一路"战略将加快内陆沿边地区主要口岸和沿边城市的发展,使沿边地区成为重要的国土开发新空间。  相似文献   

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的商品格局   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10  

公丕萍  宋周莺  刘卫东 《地理科学进展》2015,34(5)

经贸合作是"一带一路"建设的重点内容之一。研究中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的经贸合作演变特点及格局,对于促进沿线各国经济繁荣与区域经济合作,实现"贸易畅通"具有重要意义。本文在文献回顾的基础上,基于大量的数据分析,梳理了2001年以来中国与沿线国家贸易的商品结构演化历程,并采用显性比较优势指数、敏感性行业度量及k值聚类算法等,对中国与沿线国家贸易商品结构及格局进行了深入分析。研究结果显示:1中国对沿线国家的出口商品结构有所优化,进口商品结构日趋集中,能源及劳动密集型产品比重上升;2中国与沿线国家贸易的商品结构与各国出口优势行业基本一致;3中国与经济规模相对较小且产业结构较为单一的国家存在一些敏感性行业,出口方面涉及服装鞋帽、矿物制品及交通运输设备等,进口主要涉及能源、矿砂及一些资源初级加工品;4由于国内各省发展差距明显,中国出口商品的空间连续性较差。  相似文献